AgriCharts Market Commentary

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Corn futures are currently steady to 1 cent higher after settling fractionally to 2 3/4 cents higher on Thursday. The USDA reported weekly shipments dropped 50% from last week and 72.93% from a year ago at 339,252 MT. Total export commitments gained on last year, as they are now 30.49% lower than the same time last year. They are 32% of the USDA export projection for the 17/18 marketing year. Informa updated their 2018 US acreage estimates to 90.46 million acres for corn, down 1.42 million acres from their September estimate. China sold 782,089 MT of the 1.116 MMT offered at an auction of state reserves on Thursday.


Soybean futures are trading 3 to 4 cents higher this morning after finishing Thursday with gains of 2 to 4 cents in most contracts. December meal was down 40 cents/ton, with nearby bean oil 42 points higher. Weekly soybean exports hit 1.85 MMT (68 million bushels), a MY high and 18.7% larger than last year. Soybean commitments for exports are now 11.5% below this time last year. Compared to the USDA projection, they are 43% complete. Shipments for soy meal were 154,660 MT during the week ending Oct 12. Soy oil exports totaled just 6,458 MT. Analysts with Informa increased their 2018 US soybean acreage estimate 1.29 million acres from last month to an expected record 90.347 million acres.


Wheat futures are mostly 1 1/2 to 2 cents higher this morning. Thursday saw most contracts steady to 3 cents higher in most CBT and KC contracts, as MPLS was up 2 to 5 3/4 cents. The USDA reported shipments of 315,031 MT, slightly lower than last week and lagging last year by 31.74%. Export commitments for all wheat are now 4% lower than this time last year. They are 56% of the full year USDA export projection. Japan purchased 64,658 MT of US wheat in their weekly tender. Egypt’s GASC purchased 230,000 MT of wheat, with all cargos of Russian origin.


Live cattle futures ended the Thursday session mixed, as nearby Oct was down 27.5 cents. Feeder cattle futures were 62.5 cents to $1.20 higher. The CME feeder cattle index was 18 cents lower at $155.08 on October 18. Wholesale beef prices showed sharp gains in this afternoon’s report. Choice was up $2.31 at $199.57, with select boxes $1.67 higher at $190.76. Week to date FI cattle slaughter is estimated at 462,000 head, about 7,000 fewer than the previous week but 8,000 head larger than the same week last year. Cash trade has been reported at $110 so far this week. Analysts on average thinking October 1 on feed numbers will be 4.6% larger than last year in tonight’s USDA COF report. US beef export commitments are now 9.1% larger than this time in 2016.

Lean Hogs

Lean hog futures closed the day with gains of 47.5 to 52.5 cents in the nearby contracts, while back months were lower. The CME Lean Hog Index for 10/17 jumped $1.21 higher than the previous day at $62.21. The national base hog was up $1.02 at $63.42 yesterday, while the USDA pork carcass cutout value was 44 cents higher at $73.32. Estimated week to date FI hog slaughter was 22,000 head fewer than last week at 1,830,000 head through Thursday, but still 72,000 larger than the same week in 2016. Shipments came in at 21,121 MT, 21.1% above this time last year. Total 2017 US pork export commitments are 7.5% larger than year ago. Chicken expansion continues, with weekly egg sets up 4% and chick placements up 2%.


Cotton futures are 7 to 12 points higher this morning after closing mostly 9 to 32 points lower on Thursday. December futures traded at the lowest prices since August yesterday. All upland cotton 17/18 export sales increased nearly 63.95% from the previous week but lagged last week by 25.57% at 253,182 RB. Most of the sales went to Vietnam at 61,600 RB and Bangladesh with 61,500 RB purchased. There was an additional sale of 8,000 RB for 18/19 delivery to China. Exports of upland cotton were reported at 86,125 RB. Export commitments for upland cotton are now 36.3% greater than this time last year. All pima sales totaled nearly 17,500 RB, 20% lower than last week. The Adjusted World Price (AWP) was updated to 59.73 cents/lb, down 71 points from the previous week. The Cotlook A index for October 17 was 15 points higher at 77.85 cents/lb.

Market Commentary provided by:

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