How Much Time Left on the Clock?

There's still a long time to go with the corn and bean crops before they are safely stored in the bin. The trade is already talking about the possibility of an early frost as it would put a cherry on top to all the problems we've encountered with planting and development with the weather extremes this year. Of course, no one knows when it ends but, we need an extended growing season to achieve trend line yields. The August 12 crop production report is three weeks away and there is concern over the methodology of including the prevent planting acres as "normal" acres and adjusting for this incorporation by tweaking yield figures in later reports. In other words, we're still in a state of confusion and the rules of the game are being made as we go along. So, statistics may not be that accurate until the final figures in January and by that time we'll be focused on the southern hemisphere crops. Losing confidence in the USDA figures is not a good thing yet, there is time and ways for them to regain our confidence! Until then it's still the weather and basis levels that might tell the story!

There continues to be ample old crop corn and bean stocks and we have heard and seen wheat feeding in the Southern Plains. The September futures may not weaken until we reach the point where we are reasonably sure that we might achieve some decent quality. But, there's no need for an inverse right now! If the fear arises that corn test weights will be low and/or drying charges extreme then September futures might be viewed as decent ownership. The panic in the eastern ethanol facilities the past two months with exploding basis levels might be a preview of what could happen this Fall.

The information contained on this site is the opinion of the writer and obtained from sources cited within the commentary. The impact on market prices due to seasonal or market cycles and current news events may already be reflected in current market prices.

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Steve Bruce


Walsh Trading
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