Softs Report 07/22/19

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was slightly lower for the week after trading both sides of unchanged. The weather caused some of the volatility as the tropical system brought some very heavy rains to the Delta but there were no reports of any significant damage. Part of this is due to the timing of the storm as it came through before bolls had formed. The system then brought more moderate rains to the Mid South and the Southeast which probably benefited crops. Demand remains a big problem for Cotton. World demand has been less this year as China has not been buying. World prices have been lower as a result. The situation is bad enough that Indian spinners have been cutting back on operations. USDA noted less demand for US Cotton as well, primarily due to the trade disputes the US government has started against China and other major world importers. US production prospects have improved after a rough start to the season. The main problem area continues to be the Texas Panhandle. It has generally been very hot and dry in much of the Panhandle and dryland crops have been suffering. Overall US production prospects remain strong as most other areas are in good condition and USDA has kept condition ratings generally strong. The main problem will be finding buyers for the Cotton and that could mean that lower prices are needed.
Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast could see some showers. Temperatures should be mostly near to above normal. Texas will have mostly dry weather, but a few showers are possible on Monday. Temperatures will be above normal. The USDA average price is now 56.75 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 48,641 bales, from 49,226 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed to down with objectives of 6170 and 5780 December. Support is at 6260, 6170, and 6140 December, with resistance of 6410, 6470, and 6530 December.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of July 16, 2019
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COTTON NO. 2 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #033661 Open Interest is 246,085
: Positions :
: 33,154 81,262 50,161 73,268 80,289 74,273 19,151 230,856 230,863: 15,229 15,222
: :
: Changes from: July 9, 2019 (Change in open interest: 4,347) :
: 2,149 1,567 2,225 2,799 -1,256 -2,557 1,617 4,616 4,153: -269 194
: :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 13.5 33.0 20.4 29.8 32.6 30.2 7.8 93.8 93.8: 6.2 6.2
: :
: Total Traders: 305 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 70 105 86 60 55 47 22 230 224:
——————————————————————————————————————-

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ was lower and prices remain stick in a narrow trading range. Overall crop conditions are called very good in the state and production estimates from USDA remain very high. There are no tropical systems likely to hit Florida in the next week, but a system is trying to form in Bahamas that could give a glancing blow to the state. Speculators have been buying in anticipation of the hurricane season, but there are no storms on the horizon this early in the season. Producers have also been looking to sell as the orange crop in Florida looks to be big at well over 70 million boxes. The hurricane season started on June 1, but so far the state has seen only an increase in showers and storms that have been beneficial for crops. Trends are sideways to down on the daily charts and weekly charts as the market looks at a big orange crop and weak demand for FCOJ. Fruit for the next crop is developing and are as big as tennis balls. Crop conditions are called good.
Overnight News: Florida should get scattered and light showers through the weekend. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Brazil should get scattered showers today, then drier weather and near normal temperatures. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against July contracts and that total deliveries for the month are 0 contracts
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 101.00, 99.00, and 95.00 September, with resistance at 104.00, 106.00, and 107.00 September.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of July 16, 2019
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #040701 Open Interest is 23,787 :
: Positions :
: 13,410 9,382 1,456 0 70 455 7,612 120 1,185 1,068 3,790 :
: Changes from: July 9, 2019 :
: -304 -198 -18 0 0 -21 275 0 64 -79 -92 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 56.4 39.4 6.1 0.0 0.3 1.9 32.0 0.5 5.0 4.5 15.9 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 78 :
: 24 11 7 0 . . 22 . 17 4 13 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

COFFEE
General Comments: Futures closed a little higher in New York and a little lower in London. The market is still talking about the freeze that Brazil experienced a couple of weeks ago but no one is talking about a lot off damage for the crop this year. Brazil continues to keep a strong export pace and shipped about 2.8 million bags in June. It seems that the exporters are using old Coffee along with some new Coffee to keep the pace as strong as it is. The Brazil harvest is moving along at a slow pace and producers are trying to store the crop due to the current low prices. Reports indicate that the yields are not real strong and that the quality of the crop is poor due to extreme weather seen early in the growing season. Reports from the recent freeze suggest little additional damage to crops, but some leaves were burned and some trees will be in shock for a while. Production potential for the crop next year could be affected. Vietnam is also reporting lower yields for the current crop as the weather was not good for flowering earlier in the year. There have been some hot and dry spells that have hurt yield and quality for these crops as well, but showers are reported in the Central Highlands now and ideas are that conditions and production potential have improved. Central America has Coffee on offer, but bid prices from buyers have been very low. The weak prices are pushing the banks into a holding mode and they are not offering much in the way of production loans to producers. That means less production for Central America as the trees are not being fed or cared for properly. Buyers are now more actively pursuing other origins, especially for certified or higher end coffees. Roasters were scale down buyers on the extended down move and now have more than ample supplies in-house or on the way. Brazil had a good production year for the current crop, but the next crop should be less than normal.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are slightly lower today at 2.363 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 103.86 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions with near to above temperatures. Vietnam will see scattered showers and storms. ICE New York said that 0 notices were posted against July contracts and that total deliveries for the month are 610 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 105.00, 102.00, and 101.00 September, and resistance is at 110.00, 115.00 and 118.00 September. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1400, 1380, and 1360 September, and resistance is at 1440, 1460, and 1480 September.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of July 16, 2019
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COFFEE C – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #083731 Open Interest is 325,889
: Positions :
: 32,382 53,245 80,893 123,164 156,770 70,866 24,106 307,305 315,014: 18,584 10,875
: Changes from: July 9, 2019 (Change in open interest: -3,559) :
: -928 2,132 -1,171 -2,421 -3,803 997 84 -3,523 -2,758: -36 -801
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 9.9 16.3 24.8 37.8 48.1 21.7 7.4 94.3 96.7: 5.7 3.3
: Total Traders: 460 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 133 117 147 131 119 46 24 394 341:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Robusta Coffee Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 07/16/2019
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/
Processor/User Swap Dealers
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Robusta Coffee Futures and Options – ICE Futures Europe

138,219 77,158 63,229 25,319 10,470 2,044

Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
100.0% 55.8% 45.7% 18.3% 7.6% 1.5%
Number of Traders in Each Category
153 57 45 17 9 11
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
4,700 31,879 9,937 3,171 702 15,310
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
3.4% 23.1% 7.2% 2.3% 0.5% 11.1%
Number of Traders in Each Category
11 28 12 11 8 19
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
582 4,648
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
0.4% 3.4%

SUGAR
General Comments: Futures closed lower and New York made new lows for the move as it broke some important support on the daily and weekly charts. London was lower, but held after the initial move down and then climbed back into the recent trading range. World supplies appear ample for the demand. Reports from India indicate that the country still has a large surplus of White Sugar that probably must be exported. India has always been willing to dump agricultural goods such as Rice and Sugar at below cost prices, so the market began to anticipate improved sales from mills and exporters there. There are concerns that the Indian monsoon will not be strong this year and that Sugarcane production could be hurt. It is hot and dry there so far, but there are signs that the monsoon has started to develop as rains have now been at or above normal for a couple of weeks in Sugar areas. Processing of Sugarcane in Brazil is faster now after a very slow start as the is now harvest in full swing. Mills are refining mostly for ethanol right now. The fundamentals still suggest big supplies, and the weather in Brazil and India has improved to support some of the big production ideas. Demand seems to be average and routine. Very good conditions are reported in Thailand. Demand for Sugar has been average, and demand for ethanol is reported to be stable.
Overnight News: Brazil will get mostly dry weather or light showers. Temperatures should be below normal today and near to above normal starting tomorrow.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 1150 October. Support is at 1150, 1120, and 1190 October, and resistance is at 1180, 1210, and 1230 October. Trends in London are down with no objectives. Support is at 311.00, 308.00, and 305.00 October, and resistance is at 318.00, 323.00, and 325.00 October.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of July 16, 2019
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SUGAR NO. 11 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #080732 Open Interest is 1,009,347
: Positions :
: 109,012 229,024 188,987 343,212 469,791 284,437 45,957 925,649 933,760: 83,697 75,586
: Changes from: July 9, 2019 (Change in open interest: 16,115) :
: -4,770 25,494 1,428 8,822 -15,091 2,458 -1,191 7,938 10,639: 8,177 5,475
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 10.8 22.7 18.7 34.0 46.5 28.2 4.6 91.7 92.5: 8.3 7.5
: Total Traders: 258 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 55 69 83 79 75 34 18 213 208:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe White Sugar Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 07/16/2019
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/
Processor/User Swap Dealers
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE White Sugar Futures and Options- ICE Futures Europe
121,284 75,297 49,099 12,297 5,927 2,392

Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
100.0% 62.1% 40.5% 10.1% 4.9% 2.0%
Number of Traders in Each Category
156 56 40 10 8 6
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
15,062 48,562 6,655 4,635 1,264 3,809
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
12.4% 40.0% 5.5% 3.8% 1.0% 3.1%
Number of Traders in Each Category
21 33 14 16 5 15
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
1,137 3,576
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
0.9% 2.9%

COCOA
General Comments: Futures closed mixed, with New York lower and London a little higher. Demand news was mixed. The European Cocoa grind was lower for the quarter and the grind itself was at a two-year low. The Asian grind was sharply higher. The uneven weather in West Africa is still a feature. The weather in Ivory Coast has been dryer than normal for the last couple of weeks and there is some talk that production of the next main crop could be hurt. Some showers are returning to West Africa now to help relieve stress on trees. Ideas are that the next crop will be good. The harvest will start in the Fall. Growing and harvesting conditions in Asia are also reported to be good. The harvest is ongoing amid showers, but good progress in the harvest is expected at this time. More and more Asian Cocoa has been staying at home and processed in Indonesia for export in the region. Demand in Asia has been growing and Indonesia has been eager to be the primary source of Cocoa.
Overnight News: Scattered showers and storms are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will average near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 4.334 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2450, 2420, and 2390 September, with resistance at 2520, 2550, and 2590 September. Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 1790 September. Support is at 1810, 1790, and 1760 September, with resistance at 1860, 1890, and 1900 September.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of July 16, 2019
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COCOA – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #073732 Open Interest is 317,718
: Positions :
: 50,950 33,172 66,326 121,926 186,527 62,779 20,882 301,981 306,907: 15,737 10,811
: Changes from: July 9, 2019 (Change in open interest: 1,069) :
: -6,406 2,443 -1,409 10,323 -120 -663 531 1,844 1,444: -775 -375
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 16.0 10.4 20.9 38.4 58.7 19.8 6.6 95.0 96.6: 5.0 3.4
: Total Traders: 220 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 72 56 78 40 40 34 14 192 150:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Cocoa Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 07/16/2019
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/
Processor/User Swap Dealers
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Cocoa Futures and Options – ICE Futures Europe
353,815 193,363 236,932 20,863 33,164 25,423
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
100.0% 54.7% 67.0% 5.9% 9.4% 7.2%
Number of Traders in Each Category
156 49 46 14 7 11
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
59,909 5,601 27,001 4,037 261 23,819
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
16.9% 1.6% 7.6% 1.1% 0.1% 6.7%
Number of Traders in Each Category
35 11 15 17 7 21
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
-599 1,615
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
-0.2% 0.5%